Sui (SUI) is approaching the end of a long consolidation phase that analysts believe will trigger a sharp move. Trader Lennaert Snyder described SUI as a “ticking time bomb,” pointing to a 308-day compression range on the daily chart. He argued that the longer the range lasts, the bigger the breakout becomes.
Trader LucianoBTC also highlighted a repeating cycle in SUI. In his analysis, past downtrends were followed by sharp breakouts that produced rallies of 40% to 60% within weeks. He said the current structure looks similar and could result in an upside move toward $5 if resistance levels are cleared.
Compression Range Leaves SUI Price at a Critical Level
A compression range happens when price trades inside a tightening zone, often shaped like a triangle. It shows a balance between buyers and sellers. When that balance breaks, volatility usually returns.
SUI has been in such a range for almost a year. On August 26, it traded near $3.35, down 6.9% over the past week. The token remains below its 20-day EMA ($3.61) and 50-day EMA ($3.58), showing weak short-term momentum. At the same time, it is still above the 200-day EMA ($3.27), which has acted as major support in previous cycles.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 42, a neutral zone that signals no extreme buying or selling pressure. The chart shows resistance at $3.70–$3.80 and support at $3.27. A breakout or breakdown from these levels would likely decide the next trend.
Futures Open Interest Climbs as Traders Position for Move
Futures market data shows open interest (OI) increased through August. It means that more traders are taking positions on SUI. As of this week, OI was up by more than 12% compared to mid-August levels, according to exchange data.
Funding rates remain close to neutral. This indicates that longs and shorts are balanced, with no clear bias. Rising OI combined with neutral funding often creates conditions for a sharp move once price chooses a direction.
On-chain and DeFi metrics show that activity on Sui remains high. According to DeFiLlama, the network’s Total Value Locked (TVL) is $2.03 billion as of August 26, down about 3.9% in 24 hours but still close to record highs reached earlier this month. Stablecoin liquidity stands near $807 million, while daily DEX volume reached about $576 million.
These levels confirm that liquidity on Sui has not collapsed despite sideways price action. Strong TVL and stable trading volumes suggest that ecosystem participation could support a breakout if one occurs.
Breakout Above $3.80 Targets $5.30, Breakdown Risks $2.80
If SUI closes above $3.80 with strong volume, analysts expect an upside move toward $4.50, which would be a gain of around 34% from current levels, and possibly a retest of $5.30, its previous high.
If SUI drops below $3.27, the 200-day EMA, the bullish setup weakens. In that case, SUI price could fall to $3.00 or even $2.80, which would mean a correction of 16% from current price.
The compression phase is close to ending. Analysts warn that whichever direction breaks first will likely define SUI’s trend into the next quarter.
