Key Takeaways:
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan failed to secure a comfortable victory.
- Neither he nor his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, could win 50% of the votes.
- Turkey is likely to have a second round of votes on May 28.
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — Turkey will likely see a runoff between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, on May 28. After a high-voltage election that saw Erdogan’s 20-year rule hang by a thread, neither candidate secured 50% of the votes to win in the first round.
However, the Turkish authoritarian leader performed better than most polls had predicted. Even before voting began, pollsters had given Kemal Kilicdaroglu a slight edge over Erdogan. But the results tell a different story.
Erdogan not only outperformed his opponent but also almost secured a new term. He secured over 49% of the votes (final results are still awaited) and fell just short of the 50-percent threshold needed.
Kilicdaroglu fetched around 45% of the votes, according to the latest results. He is the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the second-largest party in the Turkish Parliament. Last year, six opposition parties united to prevent Erdogan from getting reelected.
In March 2023, after many rounds of negotiations, the group, who call themselves The Nation Alliance, elected Kilicdaroglu as the opposition’s Presidential candidate.
Along with the CHP, other parties in the Alliance include Meral Akşener-led Iyi Paty, Temel Karamollaoglu’s conservative Felicity Party, and Gultekin Uysal’s Democrat Party. The Democracy and Progress Party, led by Ali Babacan, and the Future Party, chaired by Ahmet Davutoglu, are also included in the united opposition block.
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Ultra-Nationalist Sinan Ogan surprises everyone
While Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu failed to secure a win, the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, played spoilsport. In an unpredicted feat, he received around 5% of votes, denying the two leading candidates a clear victory.
If the country goes to a second round, his support will be crucial to anyone looking to win. While both sides will look to court him, Erdogan seems to have an upper hand here.
Ogan is a notorious racist politician whose anti-minority rhetoric is worse than Erdogan’s. A former member of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), he currently heads the small ATA alliance block of four parties – Zafer Party, Adalet Party, Ulkem Party, and Türkiye İttifakı Party. All these parties are known for their nationalist stances.
Ideologically, he is closer to a right-wing Erdogan than a relatively liberal Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Besides, Ogan relies on the votes of the ethnic Azeri population. For them, Erdogan is an obvious choice, given his support to Azerbaijan in its recent war with Armenia.
Moreover, he has Azeri ancestry and worked as a lecturer at Azerbaijan’s Turkic World Studies Foundation between 1992 and 2000.
He was also the director of Azerbaijan’s Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA). As an MP, Ogan also served as the Secretary General of the Türkiye-Azerbaijan Parliamentary Friendship Group. Erdogan can rely on Ilham Aliyev, the long-term ruler of Azerbaijan, to pull some strings in his favor.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his National Alliance must make an irresistible offer to get Ogan’s support.
Both sides are confident of winning in the second round
Nation Alliance candidate Kilicdaroglu is confident of his win if the country goes to a second round of voting.
“If our nation says second round, we gladly accept it. We will absolutely win this election in the second round. Everyone will see that,”
the opposition candidate said after results began coming.
Erdogan also claimed that he will emerge victorious if the two go for a runoff on May 28. Moreover, he swore to abide by the mandate and initiate a peaceful transition of power in case he is voted out.
“Throughout our political life, without exception, we have always respected the decision of the national will. We respect it in this election as well, and we will respect it in the next elections,”
he said.
Along with that of the President, elections were also held for the country’s 600-member Assembly. According to preliminary results, Erdogan’s ruling People’s Alliance won over 49% of the votes. This would give them a comfortable majority of 321 seats. Meanwhile, the opposition will receive 213 seats.
In the outgoing Assembly, Erdogan’s alliance had 334 seats. While it has lost some of the seats, he still retains control of the Grand National Assembly.
With a voter turnout of around 90%, this has been one of the most active elections in Turkey.
A second-round runoff is also an unprecedented feat. While Kilicdaroglu has done well, it seems unlikely that he will be able to defeat Erdogan. But if he does, it will be a victory for democracy. The country’s faltering economy may eventually see some improvement.
