Information circulating on X suggests the US could hold 7.8 million Bitcoin by 2025, or about 40% of total supply. The image, shared by investor Fred Krueger, includes Bitcoin held by governments, companies, ETFs, and retail investors. The source of this data was not specified.
Current figures do not support this projection. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, the US government holds 198,022 BTC, representing less than 1% of Bitcoin’s supply. Most of these holdings come from high-profile seizures such as Silk Road and Bitfinex. The Trump administration previously stated that seized Bitcoin would move into national reserves.
Additionally, 46 public companies in the US hold Bitcoin. MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings top the list. Combined, these companies own 876,517 BTC. Private companies add another 188,105 BTC. US-based ETFs hold 1,342,715 BTC. Together, these four segments total 2,605,359 BTC, significantly below the 7.8 million figure.
US ETFs and Retail Investors Account for Major Bitcoin Holdings
US ETFs are now key contributors to Bitcoin holdings. Data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows ETFs manage about 1.3 million BTC. These funds have become an important component of Bitcoin’s US ownership profile.
Retail investors also form a large part of US Bitcoin holdings. Triple-A’s 2023 data shows 13% of the US population owns cryptocurrency, equating to about 46 million people. Of these crypto users, 73% hold Bitcoin, making it the most common asset in US retail crypto portfolios.
Despite these figures, adding over 5 million BTC by 2025 would require substantial growth in all sectors. Blockstream CEO Adam Back responded to Krueger’s post on X, saying,
“The source data looks unrealistic, not sure how they cooked that up, but it’s not good data I’d say.”
India’s Bitcoin Projection Faces Regulatory Limits
The same projection estimates India could own 1 million BTC by 2025, or 5.1% of the global supply. India’s investment culture, historically focused on gold, is slowly incorporating Bitcoin. However, legal and tax-related hurdles continue to affect adoption.
Current regulations restrict crypto transactions and create uncertainty for investors. Despite this, Bitcoin ownership in India is growing, although far from the projected 1 million BTC. These factors show that the estimate faces major challenges under existing policies.
Key Figures on US and India’s Bitcoin Holdings
US Government: 198,022 BTC (primarily from Silk Road and Bitfinex seizures).
US Public Companies: 876,517 BTC, led by MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings.
US Private Companies: 188,105 BTC.
US ETFs: 1,342,715 BTC.
US Retail Investors: 46 million crypto users, with 73% holding Bitcoin.
India Projection: 1 million BTC (5.1%) despite regulatory barriers.
These verified figures provide a clear view of current US Bitcoin holdings and the scale required to meet the proposed projection. They also outline India’s position in the global Bitcoin ownership landscape under its current framework.
