Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin recoils from key resistance.
- Could be a 2020 fractal at play. $20K ahead for BTC?
- The post-halving surge could compensate for the turbulence. As of now, keep calm, and no FOMO.
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) – Halloween spooked Bitcoin with a 2% slide to $34,300 on Oct 31, after peaking at $35,000 on Oct 25, its highest value since May 2022. However, an old fractal from 2019 could further despair BTC investors.
More details on why Bitcoin bulls shouldn’t celebrate the pump above $34,000 just yet:
Bitcoin bull trap threatens a 35% drop
According to the chart below, Bitcoin is printing a “Bull Trap” picture very similar to the one in late 2019-early 2020. In detail, A bull trap is a temporary reversal in an otherwise bear market that lures in “naive” investors who then experience deeper losses.
Jan 1- Feb 14, 2020, Bitcoin advanced 55%, reaching a local peak of $10,500 after consolidating sideways for over a month. However, after peaking the BTC/USD exchange rate crashed below $5,000 in February-March when the COVID pandemic hit.
Admittedly, the initial crash was a black swan event that couldn’t have been foreseen, but the indicators do look similar. The chart above shows a similar price action drop to the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA-50; blue wave) and a month-long sideways consolidation afterward, followed by a sharp rally up to a resistance line where the “bull trap” lies.
Macroeconomics could push BTC down
Hopefully, there will be no Covid 2.0 on the horizon. However, the current situation in the Middle East could further crash the markets, in which case, there could be insufficient cash to park in the crypto sector.
Currently, investors are watching to see if the Israel-Hamas conflict draws in other countries with the potential to drive up oil prices further and deal a fresh blow to the world economy.
In the meantime, if the fractal plays out, Bitcoin could drop to approximately $20,000, losing over 35% of its valuation before 2024. However, BTC bulls should also note, that the explosive 500% rally followed in 2020-2021, taking the coin to its all-time high.
Bitcoin surge expected in 2025
Notably, another fractal connected to the Bitcoin halving confirms the crash-then-surge angle, confirming the target drop at approximately $20,000. According to the chart below, the next bull market peak could occur 518-546 days after the Halving That’s mid-September 2025 or mid-October 2025.
In the described scenario, BTC could reach close to $100,000, if the past is any indication. As of Oct 31, the best advice for traders would be to NOT follow the FUD or the FOMO. Cruise in between, at least until Bitcoin conquers the resistance line described above.
