Data from CryptoQuant shows a steady exit of large XRP holders over the past three weeks. The retracement appears driven, in part, by this sustained whale distribution.
Since July 9, whale wallets—addresses that hold large amounts of XRP—have offloaded significant volumes. The 90-day moving average of whale netflows turned negative by 640 million XRP, equal to roughly $340 million. This trend aligns with the recent XRP price slump.
CryptoQuant’s 30-day moving average of whale flows confirms the pressure. It indicates consistent selling activity from top-tier holders, suggesting limited confidence in near-term gains.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Nebraskangooner warned that XRP’s price could face a “full pump retrace,” a move where the token may return to the base of its last rally near $2.
BDACS recently launched XRP custody services for Korean institutions. The move reflects growing institutional interest, although on-chain data suggests current sentiment among whales remains bearish.
XRP Prints Bullish Falling Flag With $4.92 Target in Sight
The XRPUSD 4-hour chart from August 7, 2025, shows a clear bullish falling flag pattern. This formation typically appears after a sharp price rise and consists of downward-sloping parallel lines, representing short-term consolidation before another upward move. The breakout above the upper trendline confirms bullish intent.
The 50-period Exponential Moving Average, plotted as a blue line and currently around $3.01, sits near the breakout zone. This alignment strengthens the technical setup. Trading volume, displayed as bars below the chart, reached 49.29 thousand, showing renewed participation as XRP broke out of the flag.
If the move holds, XRP could rise by 64 percent from the current price of $3.00, targeting approximately $4.92. This projection mirrors the height of the prior rally leading into the flag. The combination of rising volume, EMA support, and breakout confirmation increases the likelihood of the pattern playing out.
XRP RSI Hovers at Neutral Zone With No Clear Momentum Shift
The XRP Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart from August 7, 2025, shows the 14-day RSI at 51.96, with its moving average at 49.48. The indicator sits in the neutral zone, between the key thresholds of 70 (overbought) and 30 (oversold), suggesting a balanced state between buying and selling pressure.
Throughout the year, the RSI has mostly oscillated within this mid-range band, indicating a lack of sustained bullish or bearish dominance. Even during spikes above 70 or dips below 30, reversals followed quickly, showing limited follow-through.
Currently, the RSI reading near 52 aligns with a consolidation phase, confirming that the market has not yet committed to a strong directional move. As the RSI hovers around its signal line, traders await a breakout above or below the key levels for clearer trend confirmation.
XRP MACD Turns Slightly Bullish After Bearish Pressure Eases
The XRPUSD MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) chart from August 7, 2025, shows early signs of a potential bullish shift. The MACD line (blue) has crossed above the signal line (orange), printing a positive reading of 0.00361 while the signal line stands at 0.00072. This crossover suggests weakening bearish momentum.
The histogram also turned green, reflecting the shift in momentum toward the upside. However, the recent crossover is still close to the zero line, indicating that the strength of the move is not yet confirmed. The previous cycles in this chart show frequent fakeouts, so further separation between the MACD and signal line is needed to validate trend continuation.
So far, the MACD pattern hints at a recovery attempt, aligning with XRP’s recent falling flag breakout on the price chart. If the histogram continues expanding upward, it could confirm growing bullish momentum in the short term.
XRP Stochastic Momentum Index Signals Weak but Rising Bullish Drive
The XRPUSD Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) chart from August 7, 2025, shows that the blue line (SMI) has climbed to 20.34, crossing above the signal line at 6.61. This crossover in the positive zone suggests early bullish momentum is forming after a recent dip into negative territory.
Throughout the past months, the SMI has shown frequent oscillations between overbought and oversold regions, reflecting a highly reactive market. However, the current upturn signals that XRP could be regaining short-term strength after recent bearish pressure.
The values remain modest, so this move does not confirm a strong uptrend yet. Still, the positioning above the zero line marks a shift in bias, especially if it continues climbing toward the 40–60 range seen in earlier bullish phases. If sustained, it may support the potential breakout scenario shown on the price chart.
