Will Cardano’s Vasil hard fork perform where Ethereum Merge flunked?

Key Takeaways:

  • Analysts have speculated that the Vasil upgrade will trigger a rally in the price of ADA.
  • All of Cardano's previous hard forks have positive affected the price movement of ADA.
  • ADA price in the last 24 hours has rallied by almost 4%.
Cardano's native token, ADA, followed the crypto market as the market recovered over the weekend. Image from Stockvault and Cryptologos
Cardano’s upgrade would not be a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news event.

LAGOS (CoinChapter.com) — With Ethereum Merge completed, the entire cryptocurrency space has turned its attention towards Cardano and its upcoming Vasil hard fork slated for September 22.

According to Input Output (IO), Cardano’s Vasil upgrade will increase the blockchain network’s functionality, performance, and scalability. As a result, several analysts have speculated that the upgrade will trigger a rally in the price of ADA despite the ongoing crypto market volatility.

Cardano Vasil hard fork

Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, in particular, forecasted that the Cardano token would double in price before the Vasil hard fork. Poppe argued that the lack of significant momentum in the price of ADA ahead of the blockchain upgrade would be the primary catalyst for a significant rally after the September 22 event.

“We basically have no momentum and hype going towards the Vasil hard fork as no clear run upwards has been taking place prior. This brings massive opportunities if the Vasil hard fork is going to take place in a positive manner which is quite similar to the Ethereum (ETH) Merge. In that case, a run towards $1 isn’t unexpected around this event.”

Poppe said.

Similarly, Twitter user @btc_masterplan posited that the low interest surrounding the upcoming Vasil hard fork is a sign of an upcoming increase.

Vasil Hard Fork Different From Merge

Poppe also noted that, unlike Ethereum’s Merge, Cardano’s upgrade would not be a ‘buy the rumor sell the news event. In addition, he noted that the Merge fortune would not be the case for ADA because the market is attempting to embark on a bullish rally. He said:

“The standard ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ concept might not be the case here as we are looking at a potential switch of the bear market towards a bull market.”

Cardano’s Vasil hard fork, Will Cardano’s Vasil hard fork perform where Ethereum Merge flunked?

Additionally, a Twitter user posited that the Vasil hard fork is different from the Merge because, unlike Ethereum, newly transitioning to a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism, Cardano has already been allowing developers to create novel and exciting experiences.

Similarly, IO noted that the Vasil upgrade would increase Cardano’s optimization and improve the chain’s scaling and interoperability. Notably, Vasil falls under the Basho era of Cardano. Basho is considered a stepping stone to realizing the chain’s ambitions of global adoption by enabling high transaction volume.

ALSO READ: Ethereum L2 tokens are crumbling post Merge

The Vasil hard fork aims to add four Cardano Improvement Proposals (CIPs) into the mix. The CIPs include CIP-31 (Reference Inputs), CIP-32 (Inline Datums), CIP-33 (Reference Scripts), and CIP-40 (Collateral Outputs).

It is also worth noting that there have been three Cardano hard forks before Vasil: Shelley, Mary, and Alonzo.

All three of these hard forks affected the price movement of ADA. One commonality is that prices rally leading up to these hard forks and tend to fizzle out post the upgrade. This has happened with Shelley and Alonzo, whereas prices continued to rise after the Mary upgrade.

ADA Price Rallies

However, at press time, ADA price seems to be gaining momentum ahead of the Cardano Vasil hard fork. Although the Merge overshadowed the hype for the upgrade, the token has started the journey towards recovery.

Over the last 24 hours, the price of ADA has begun sliding upward, trading at $0.45. The token rallied by around 4% as ADA selling pressure is still declining on the day in the market.

However, ADA is still down 85% from its all-time high attained in September last year, according to data from Coingecko.

Notably, the token dropped under $1 in April 2022 and has not yet reclaimed the level. Nevertheless, Cardano is still a dominant cryptocurrency, ranked as the 8th largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of $15.3 billion.

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Cardano’s Vasil hard fork, Will Cardano’s Vasil hard fork perform where Ethereum Merge flunked?

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