Will Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Really Crash 25% in June?

NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com) — Dogecoin (DOGE) faces a potential 25% price crash as technical analysis reveals a classic rising wedge pattern. This bearish formation on the 1-day chart suggests a possible downturn, threatening DOGE’s current uptrend. Despite a recent 1.38% increase, DOGE is trading at $0.157390, with technical indicators pointing towards potential challenges ahead.

Rising Wedge Signals Trouble for DOGE

The Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) daily chart on TradingView reveals a critical technical pattern that could significantly impact its price trajectory. The most prominent feature is the classic rising wedge formation, a bearish reversal pattern that has been developing since mid-April.

As Dogecoin’s price fluctuates within the rising wedge, trading activity dwindles. This drop in volume hints at a weakening of the current upward momentum, aligning with the bearish nature of the rising wedge. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering around 50, indicates a neutral market sentiment. Keep a watchful eye on the RSI, as significant shifts above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold) could signal a potential breakout from the wedge pattern.

Looking at key moving averages, DOGE is currently trading above its 50-day EMA ($0.1576), 100-day EMA ($0.1494), and 200-day EMA ($0.1306). This positioning above all major EMAs indicates that DOGE is in an overall uptrend. However, the rising wedge pattern suggests this uptrend may be nearing exhaustion. A breakdown below these EMAs, particularly the 200-day EMA which often acts as a long-term trend indicator, would provide strong confirmation of a bearish shift.

The chart also outlines a potential downside target around $0.1133, should DOGE break below the wedge’s support line. This level represents a substantial 25% drop from the current price of $0.1590. Such a move would not only confirm the rising wedge’s bearish nature but also likely shake out many short-term investors who bought during the recent uptrend.

On-Chain Data: Mixed Signals for DOGE

While technicals paint a gloomy picture, on-chain metrics offer a more nuanced view. A striking 83% of Dogecoin holders are making money at the current price, suggesting strong investor confidence. However, high concentration by large holders (63%) raises centralization concerns. This metric implies that whales hold significant sway over DOGE’s price movements, potentially leading to higher volatility.

The meme coin’s price correlation with Bitcoin stands at 0.87, indicating that DOGE closely follows the market leader’s trends. This high correlation suggests that a Bitcoin downturn could drag Dogecoin lower. Interestingly, 67% of DOGE holders have held their tokens for over a year. This long-term commitment reflects faith in the project, possibly cushioning any price drops.

However, transaction demographics reveal a near-even split between East (52%) and West (48%). This balanced distribution suggests that DOGE’s appeal transcends geographical boundaries, making it a truly global phenomenon. The past week saw significant large-scale transactions, with $1.97 billion in transfers exceeding $100,000, indicating active whale activity.

Exchange flows show more tokens leaving than entering. In the past seven days, $204.77 million in DOGE exited exchanges, while only $183.05 million entered. This net outflow suggests investors are holding rather than trading, a potentially bullish sign.

The rising wedge pattern on the Dogecoin (DOGE) price chart warns of a possible 25% crash. A breakdown below the support trendline could see DOGE plummet to $0.1133. However, on-chain data paints a mixed picture. High holder profitability and long-term commitment contrast with centralization risks. As June unfolds, watch for a decisive breakout to gauge Dogecoin’s next move.