XRP (XRP) kicked off 2026 with a sharp burst of momentum, climbing nearly 30% since Jan. 1 and briefly outpacing much of the broader crypto market.
On the surface, the move looks like a clean breakout driven by renewed optimism and positioning for the new year. Under the hood, however, market structure data is telling a far more cautious story.
No Aggressive Buyers Behind XRP’s 30% Rebound
XRP’s rally was not fueled by sustained taker buying, according to data highlighted by analyst Dom in a Jan. 6 X post.
Notably, the token’s spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), which tracks the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers, showed a deeply negative reading across major exchanges. This highlighted a rising sell-side pressure even as XRP’s price pushed higher, suggesting the rally occurred without buyers aggressively lifting offers.
For the rally to hold, analysts say XRP needs clear structural confirmation: sustained positive CVD, stronger bid-side activity, and buyers willing to absorb supply at higher levels. Without that shift, the upside remains fragile and vulnerable to a pullback if sentiment turns.
Dom’s outlook appeared just as XRP failed to close above its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) at around $2.34, plunging by over 3% after testing it as resistance on Jan. 6.
The pullback occurred around the upper trendline of its prevailing descending channel pattern, raising odds of a deeper correction toward the lower trendline. That amounted to an 18-20% correction to the $1.80-1.82 zone by February 2026.
XRP 2022 Fractal Further Warns of More Pain Ahead
XRP’s rebound is showing parallels with its 2021–2022 decline, a period that ultimately resolved lower. At that time, price continued to push upward even as momentum weakened, creating a bearish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI). That signal marked a major cycle top and was followed by an approximately 85% drawdown.
The subsequent downtrend was not linear. XRP produced several aggressive relief rallies, particularly after interacting with the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA), with some rebounds exceeding 100%. Even so, those moves failed to shift the broader market structure, as price repeatedly stalled beneath a long-term descending resistance line.
A comparable setup is developing again. XRP remains below both the descending trendline and the 100-week EMA, keeping downside risks in play. A clean reclaim of these levels would improve the outlook and put the $3.00 area near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension into focus. Failure to do so could expose the token to a retracement toward the $1.61–$1.97 range.
