Bitcoin (BTC) has broken into record territory, reaching a new all-time high near $119,000 this week. The rally, gaining strength from a shift in market positioning and growing technical momentum, may continue through the third quarter. Analysts at 10x Research say the asset could reach $133,000 by September.
Traders Underexposed as Market Breaks Out
Following last month’s options expiry, many traders found themselves under-positioned. That event triggered a sharp reduction in market exposure. Since then, option market behavior has flipped. Traders are now aggressively buying calls, a sign that many are preparing for further upside after missing the initial breakout. This renewed buying suggests confidence is returning—and quickly.
10x Research sees this shift as a significant inflection point. Their proprietary Bitcoin trend model turned bullish on June 30, just ahead of the price surge. According to their analysis, the breakout has a 60% probability of continuing over the next two months. Drawing on historical data, the model suggests that similar moves have resulted in gains of around 20%. If that plays out, Bitcoin would land near $133,000 in the coming weeks.
Historically, the third quarter has been Bitcoin’s weakest. Since 2013, the asset has posted only modest average returns during this period. However, 2025 may break from that trend. This quarter is beginning with record highs and powerful technical signals.
The strength of demand is visible in every leg of this rally. Capital is flowing in from both short-term traders and longer-term holders and institutional buyers. Many who sat out the last major cycle are now being forced to re-enter the market at higher levels, adding to the upward pressure.
Analysts Warn Against Sitting on the Sidelines
As Bitcoin pushes into uncharted territory, several analysts are voicing a common warning: staying on the sidelines now could prove costly. The current setup is reminding some of the missed opportunity seen in 2020, when the market signaled strength early, but hesitation led many to fumble the bottom.
Thielen isn’t the only one confident about Bitcoin’s rise. Crypto trader Jelle posted on X, “Bitcoin is taking off,” adding, “I would love to see it close in price discovery to take away all bear arguments.”
The tone among seasoned traders has shifted from cautious optimism to outright conviction. Many now believe the current rally could be the beginning of a new phase for Bitcoin’s price discovery.
