NOIDA (CoinChapter.com)— Bitcoin halving is here, and how. The drama in BTC price action in the run-up to the event has traders bewildered about the way forward. The recent price drop has some thinking of buying the dip, while others are liquidating their positions and exiting the market.
With the market currently experiencing significant fluctuations, a detailed analysis by CoinChapter’s Bitcoin expert, Yashu Gola, provides insights into what the near future might hold for BTC.
The Bitcoin price action over the last 30 days shows the market’s volatility, with an approximate $10,000 difference between the high and low levels. That kind of volatility is sufficient to scare the pants off of even a seasoned trader.
Macro and Geopolitical Cues Could Erase Halving Excitement From The Market
Gola, a crypto veteran with over a decade in the sector, pointed out that the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East would likely impact Bitcoin prices after the halving.
The crypto analyst highlighted that the crypto sector reacted negatively as the US dollar gained strength amidst rising global demand for haven assets due to the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, which could dampen the Bitcoin halving fervor.
Other analysts have also highlighted that the markets may not have priced in an Israeli counterattack in response to April 13’s attack. Israel attacked Iran on April 19, with conflicting reports coming out of the region.
The markets have already started responding to the incident, with Asian shares and bond yields sinking while haven options like Gold spiking. Bitcoin price needled below $60,000 during early trading before bulls recovered ground.
Moreover, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, significantly delayed the timeline for the anticipated first rate cut, now expected not to occur until November 2024. The new timeline significantly deviates from the earlier expectations of a June 2024 rate cut.
Gola highlighted that the rate cut delay could “substantially impact financial markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.”
The Technical Analysis Side Of The Bitcoin Halving
Gola highlighted that the two distinct technical patterns deemed the 200-day EMA (green wave) trendline as the breakout support.
The first is the ‘symmetrical triangle pattern.’
As the pattern develops over time, a series of lower highs and higher lows converge to a point, giving it its triangular appearance.
Symmetrical triangles can break out in either direction, though traders generally consider the breakout direction to be a continuation of the trend in place before the triangle formed. In case of a bearish breakout, the symmetrical triangle has set a theoretical price target near $50,000 for BTC.
Another pattern that the Bitcoin price has formed is the bearish technical setup called the ‘descending triangle.‘
A period of consolidation succeeding the steep uptrend forms the flag of the pattern. Despite the strong vertical rally, the asset price does not drop as bulls maintain the buying pressure. As a result, the breakout from the flag pattern often results in a powerful uptrend.
The pattern is completed when the price breaks out of the flag area, continuing the previous upward trend. Traders calculate the price target of the breakout by adding the length of the flag pole to the breakout price level.
The second triangle pattern sets a price target for Bitcoin near $50,000, making the 200-day EMA trendline a bull’s best friend during a market crash.
Bitcoin Responds To Halving
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price had recovered from a dip below $60,000 to reach a daily high near $65,200, likely riding the halving euphoria. Gola had anticipated the bullish recovery but warned of a correction in the long term. He said
“The Bitcoin halving is arriving, so maybe the sentiment will be quite bullish in the near term. I’m not saying long term because, as I explained earlier, the fundamentals that were supporting the Bitcoin rally so far are actually diminishing with the escalating Middle Eastern conflict and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies“
Our resident Bitcoin expert stated that a bounce near the $60,000 mark could help the token recover. However, investors need to be cautious of a retest of the 50-day EMA (purple wave) resistance.
“Look for signals,” Gola said in the video, hinting at fundamental news and maybe Jerome Powell or Gary Gensler waking up one day and announcing, “We love Bitcoins“
And, of course, Do Your Own Research since this article is not financial advice; it is just our view of the market.
