Two crypto analysts, @MinswapIntern and @KayneStanway, have predicted a breakout in Cardano (ADA) to levels between $8 and $10. The forecasts use multi‑year chart structures and Elliott Wave theory.
@MinswapIntern based his outlook on a falling wedge breakout, a setup that last appeared in 2020. At that time, ADA rallied from under $0.10 to more than $3.00 in less than a year. He argues that ADA’s current breakout above $0.75 mirrors that formation and, if history repeats, could project toward $8.
@KayneStanway used Elliott Wave Theory. He counts ADA as having completed its first two waves and now beginning Wave 3. Applying a 1.618 Fibonacci extension, his chart sets a Wave 3 target near $8.96. He notes that Wave 3 has historically been the longest and strongest impulse wave in prior ADA rallies.
Breakout Above $0.75 Confirms Technical Structure
Cardano is trading above its 20‑, 50‑, 100‑, and 200‑day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). EMAs track the average price over a set number of days, giving more weight to recent prices. Trading above all four signals a strong upward trend. The last time ADA showed this alignment was in 2021 before it rallied to $3.10.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently 66. RSI measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100. Readings above 70 often mean an asset is overbought, while readings below 30 mean it is oversold. At 66, ADA is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting the price could face resistance if momentum continues higher.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line but has started to flatten. MACD tracks the difference between two moving averages. When it rises, it often means momentum is building; when it flattens or falls, it shows momentum is slowing.
Several Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain between $0.75 and $1.20. FVGs are unfilled price areas created when markets move too quickly. Prices often revisit these gaps, making them short‑term targets after a breakout.
Cardano Whale Accumulation: Mid-Tier Wallets Increase While ADA “Billionaires” Pull Back
Additionally, addresses with 10 million to 100 million ADA have been adding to their balances since March. Holdings in the 100 million to 1 billion ADA range also grew, reaching more than 3 billion ADA. At the same time, wallets with over 1 billion ADA cut back slightly, reducing the scale of accumulation at the very top.
Whale behavior matters because large investors often drive liquidity and influence price direction. Accumulation from mid‑sized whales indicates confidence, but reduced exposure from the largest holders limits the strength of the signal.
Cardano’s development activity index is around 52 in July, down from peaks above 100 in late 2024. This index tracks GitHub commits and code contributions. Higher values mean more development and upgrades. Contributor counts have also dropped, averaging single digits this month.
Lower development activity signals a slower pace of ecosystem growth. In earlier cycles, ADA’s strongest rallies coincided with higher developer engagement and more active protocol building.
Cardano’s Decentralized Finance Participation Still Below Peak Levels
According to DeFiLlama, Cardano’s Total Value Locked (TVL) is $358.76 million, compared with under $200 million in mid‑2023. TVL measures how much capital is committed to decentralized finance protocols. Higher TVL indicates more users engaging with lending, trading, and staking applications.
Despite the rebound, current TVL remains well below the $600–700 million highs from earlier in 2025. In ADA’s 2021 rally, TVL growth played a key role in fueling the price surge.
Santiment reports Cardano’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio at -17.57%. The MVRV compares the current market price of ADA with the average cost basis of all tokens held. Negative values mean the average holder is at an unrealized loss.
In past cycles, negative MVRV readings preceded rallies, as undervalued conditions encouraged accumulation. But those rallies also depended on growth in network activity and whale demand, which remain weaker now.
Cardano’s open interest (OI) in futures markets rose sharply in late July 2025, reaching its highest level in more than a year. Open interest measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts. Rising OI means more capital is being committed to leveraged trades.
In earlier ADA rallies, increases in OI coincided with strong price moves. The current rise confirms that traders are actively positioning for further gains. However, higher OI also makes markets more volatile, as rapid position closures can accelerate price swings.
Cardano Price Forecast Faces Resistance Despite Bullish Patterns
Analysts have set an $8–$10 target for Cardano, citing a falling wedge breakout and an Elliott Wave 3 projection based on a Fibonacci extension. ADA has confirmed a breakout above $0.75, reclaimed its EMA trend, and benefits from high staking and exchange outflows that limit supply.
At the same time, daily active addresses remain far below 2021 levels, whale holdings are in decline, developer activity is muted, and decentralized finance participation is below prior peaks. RSI readings near 70 and a flattening MACD also show a risk of short‑term cooling, while derivatives data has yet to support the move.
Given the current backdrop, levels around $1.20 to $1.80 appear more consistent with ADA’s present conditions than the $8–$10 forecasts.
