Cardano Vasil hard fork countdown begins — Will ADA price undergo ETH-like drop?

YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) – Cardano (ADA) has less than 24 hours to launch its next ambitious upgrade, the Vasil hard fork. On Sep 21, Input Output Hong Kong (IOHK), the company behind Cardano, informed its followers that the transition would be smooth as all three “critical mass indicators” had been met.

Cardano Vasil hard fork will commence shortly

IOHK asserted that 39 exchanges have already confirmed their readiness for the hard fork, which accounts for nearly 90% of ADA liquidity. 13 of those exchanges confirmed in the previous 48 hours. But Coinbase took longer to respond, and the integration status is still “in progress.”

The tweet above also asserts that with an updated Vasil node in place, over 98% of mainnet blocks are now being created by the updated nodes, ticking the second box of critical mass indicators. Additionally, the blockchain’s top decentralized applications (dapps) have also confirmed their readiness, completing the preparations and greenlighting the take-off.

Meanwhile, the implications for ADA are not clear. If the token takes the Ethereum (ETH) route, it could lose value in the upcoming weeks.

Will ADA tumble like ETH?

In detail, the Merge made headlines earlier in September.

It focused the crypto community’s attention on Ethereum’s much-anticipated shift from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake consensus. However, the effect on the token followed the “buy the rumor, sell the news” principle, where an asset balloons in price before a major event, and shrinks afterward.

After the Merge, ETH lost over 22% and traded below $1,300 on Sep 22. Will ADA follow the same trajectory?

Meanwhile, historical trends back the sour prediction indicating that ADA prices are often unresponsive to network upgrades.

After the Shelly hardfork on Jul 29, 2020, ADA prices continued moving horizontally before dropping below $0.1 in early Sept. Next came the Mary hard fork on Mar 1, 2021, which introduced multi-asset support on Cardano and did not cause a bull run.

Also read: Will Cardano’s Vasil hard fork perform where Ethereum Merge flunked?

Technical indicators favor the bears

ADA daily chart flashed a bearish setup dubbed ‘descending triangle.’ The latter entails a flat support line and a descending resistance that cap the upside attempts. The setup could result in another leg down after the price action breaks below the support.

Should the bearish scenario pan out, the downturn could equal the maximal distance between the trendlines, pinning the target price at approximately $0.1. Additionally, the declining trading volumes despite the Vasil upgrade indicate that a price depreciation is possible.