- Crypto analyst says the altcoins are primed to overtake BTC.
- Bitcoin dominance grew Q1-Q3/2023 but slid to 49% in Aug.
- The altcoin season index points to Bitcoin, not the altcoin market.
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) – Michael Van de Poppe, an Amsterdam-based crypto analyst, asserted that the altcoin market shows potential for an upcoming reversal while “no one expects it.”
The analyst noted that markets have been going sideways in recent months, creating a “ton of boredom across the field.” However, he thinks the altcoin season will be on the market soon enough, as less than a year is left before the Bitcoin halving event.
Slowly but surely, we can see the fact that Altcoins are showing momentum. Breakouts are happening across the board, while also major caps are showing some momentum.tweeted Van de Poppe recently.
Bitcoin dominance has increased year-to-date.
Van de Poppe also cited the receding Bitcoin dominance to back his prediction.
However, the latter stood at 49% on Sep 4, after putting on an additional 8% year-to-date. Notably, the alpha crypto’s dominance reached the critical 50% mark in July but couldn’t hold the level confidently and slid to 49%, retesting the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA-200; blue wave) as resistance.
According to the analyst, such behavior is also typical for past cycles.
That means that, as we’re again 8-10 months before the halving of Bitcoin, we can expect to see a surge in altcoins rather than downwards-moving markets. And yes, of course, if Bitcoin falls another 10% in September, the USD values of altcoins will start to fall, too.commented Van de Poppe.
Is the altcoin season close?
“Altseason,” or altcoin season, points to a spike in the combined market capitalization of all altcoins. However, the latter did not yet occur. Conversely, the total crypto market cap minus Bitcoin stood at just below $520 billion, nearly paring its 2023 gains.
According to the analytical platform blockchaincenter.net, the Altcoin Season is considered open when “75% of the Top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days)”. The top 50 count does not include stablecoins (Tether, DAI, etc.) and asset-backed tokens (WBTC, stETH, cLINK, etc.).
However, according to the website, the altcoin season index still points to Bitcoin, signifying the 18th consecutive month of Bitcoin season.
Generally, altcoins are more volatile than Bitcoin and more risky.
Thus, it should come as no surprise that considering the global post-covid financial turbulence, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, volatile oil prices, and the risk of US default earlier this year, fewer crypto market participants will invest in altcoins, choosing Bitcoin as a safer option.
Michael Van de Poppe’s theory of a sudden and unexpected reversal could still pan out. However, on-chain indicators don’t point in an altseason direction just yet, despite Bitcoin’s unstable dominance.