NAIROBI (Coinchapter.com) – As the Bitcoin (BTC) market navigates a period of volatility, analysts are weighing in on whether an extended Bitcoin price dip is possible, or likely. While some warn of a significant price drop, others argue against the likelihood of a “black swan event.”
Bitcoin, the premier cryptocurrency, might be heading for a downturn, as suggested by analysts examining its technical indicators. This prediction follows a recent spike where BTC nearly reached the $61,000 level. Analyst Mark Cullen recently highlighted the potential for a new drop in the BTC/USD pair, sparking widespread discussion.
$59,000 Bitcoin Price Dip Possible by April 17
According to popular analyst Mark Cullen, the course is set for a final down move that could take Bitcoin to around $59,000 in the coming days. Utilizing the Elliott Wave method, Cullen suggested that this $59,000 price level would put BTC price action at its lowest since late February, representing a drawdown of around 20% from recent all-time highs.
After challenging the $61,000 resistance level, a significant rebound in the BTC/USD pair failed to hold, with the cryptocurrency now circling the $62,000 mark as of April 16.
Another analyst, Matthew Hyland, has also weighed in on the current pullback, focusing on the upcoming weekly close for insights into its staying power. Hyland noted that BTC/USD has lost the support of its 10-week simple moving average (SMA), which currently lies at $64,130.
“This is highly dependent on how the weekly candle closes,” he wrote. “The last time it tested it, it was a great buying opportunity and never closed below it. The close will be what matters most.”
Market Sentiments and Historical Comparisons
The recent tweet from CryptoJelleNL points out that Bitcoin’s current market pattern mirrors the 2014-2018 cycle. Jelle emphasizes the importance of endurance through the halving event and the turbulent period before reaching all-time highs (ATH), suggesting optimistic prospects beyond current fluctuations.
Historical data and market reactions provide insights into potential future movements when discussing the broader context. During 2019-2020, Bitcoin experienced volatility in response to the Federal Reserve’s rate adjustments, which correlated with significant price movements in Bitcoin’s trading history. Notably, during these periods, Bitcoin managed to rally and accumulate value preemptively before major economic downturns.
For the current cycle, the community is cautious about equating the unfolding events with a “black swan” like those driven by unforeseen crises in the past. Instead, analysts like binhdangg, using the CVDD (Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed) metric, suggest more tempered expectations. The CVDD metric has historically pinpointed local peaks effectively, and current patterns may suggest a return to a consolidation phase rather than a drastic downturn to CVDD bottom levels.
