Bitcoin Q2 2021 analysis, will Q3 be any better?

Q2, Bitcoin Q2 2021 analysis, will Q3 be any better?
Image by Csaba Nagy from Pixabay
  • Bitcoin notes its worst Q2 performance since 2014.
  • Despite the correction, the quarterly closing price remains above the Q4 2020 value.
  • Institutional interest is not slowing down significantly.

Belgium (CoinChapter.com) — Contrary to most people’s expectations, bitcoin has not performed that well in Q2 2021. In fact, it has been one of the worst quarters for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, with Q3 around the corner, there is still much to look forward to, although there are never any guarantees.

Also read: Institutions interest in Bitcoin has fallen drastically, asserts JPMorgan analyst

Bitcoin Performance in Q2 2021

Despite a solid start to the year 2021 – resulting in a quarterly gain of 102.93% – things have fallen apart a bit for Bitcoin. That is not entirely abnormal, as the currency saw its value explode in quick succession. A market correction is often a matter of time at that point, which is exactly what happened to Bitcoin.

The correction was very steep and has kept the market in volatile territory for a while now, with no real changes in sight.

Now that one can put results for Bitcoin in Q2 2021 into quantifiable data, it is essential to look at the performance. Historically, Q2 is a good quarter for Bitcoin, with returns between 4.59% and 157.54%. As such, one would not expect to see this year’s Q2 result be lower than normal. Instead, it is negative for the first time in seven years at -41.12%. A substantial deficit, but that is somewhat normal after the monster gains recorded in Q1.

Source: Skew
Source: Skew

While that may seem scary, the reality is often a bit different.

Throughout 2021, Bitcoin has surpassed the $50,000 mark for the first time. Even after its correction, Bitcoin’s Q2 2021 closing price is $34,615.25. That value is higher than the closing price of Q4 2020, indicating there is nothing to be too concerned about. Those who maintain a short-term market outlook may feel otherwise, but the long-term uptrend is still unaffected by the look of things.

Unfortunately, some of the earlier price predictions turned out to be factually incorrect. Predicting how Bitcoin would hit $75,000 in Q2 2021 did not happen, but there are still two quarters left in the year to make a positive impact. Given how high the price went earlier this year, that may only be a sign of what is yet to come for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. 

What To Expect In Q3 2021

Historically speaking, Q3 is usually rather interesting for Bitcoin. It can either offer stable performance or a very negative correction.

As this year has already seen a steep price correction, it seems unlikely to be two of them in succession. However, historical data isn’t always relevant, as is evident when looking at the yearly Q2 performances. So, for now, it is too early to gain any insight as to where the Bitcoin price will head next.

Bitcoin quarterly returns. Source: Skew
Bitcoin quarterly returns. Source: Skew

One aspect working in favor of BTC is the positive attitude companies like MicroStrategy maintain. The company has bought significant amounts of Bitcoin and continues to do so despite an operating expense increase as its digital asset holdings lose ground. Most other public companies would explore other alternatives, yet MicroStrategy stays its course.

Furthermore, there is still the expectation of how Bitcoin will not only surpass $75,000 but even go past $100,000 in 2021. A very bullish outlook, although one that seems to heavily lean on behavior by institutional investors first and foremost. It is challenging to gauge those institutions’ interest in cryptocurrency, although the current momentum seems to hint at potential accumulation. That can, in turn, prove very bullish for Bitcoin in the second half of 2021. 

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