Bitcoin’s much-anticipated 2024 halving event may not have the same price impact as previous cycles, according to a new report from crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant. The key driver for Bitcoin’s price action after the halving is now shifting towards surging demand from large investors rather than the supply shock caused by the event itself.
As of 10th April 2024, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $69,051.70, and the market has witnessed a 4% increase over the past seven days. The trading volume in the last 24 hours stands at approximately $33.79 billion, indicating a robust market activity.
Historical patterns reveal substantial price rallies following Bitcoin halvings, with a 4,200% surge after 2016 and a 683% increase post-2020. While market dynamics evolve, the robust demand from both large and permanent holders could catalyze significant price appreciation after the 2024 halving.
Bitcoin Halving Hype Fades
Bitcoin halvings, traditionally pivotal events tightening supply and boosting prices, face a changing narrative. With the April 20, 2024, halving reducing rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, its once straightforward impact wanes. The anticipated post-halving drop in monthly issuance by about 14,000 pales in comparison to the 417,000 Bitcoin monthly sales by long-term holders over the last year, highlighting a shift towards demand as the main price driver.
Another factor reducing the halving’s impact is Bitcoin’s monthly issuance, now just 4% of total supply. This marks a significant fall from the 69%, 27%, and 10% rates seen before the first three halvings.
Historically, halvings have ushered in bullish markets, with the 2020 halving propelling Bitcoin from approximately $10,000 to a staggering $70,000. However, the current landscape portrays a different story.
Demand from Whales Driving the Market?
Despite reduced supply, attention turns to whale demand, with holders of 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins witnessing an 11% monthly increase. Permanent holders now add about 200K Bitcoin monthly, surpassing the pre-halving issuance. This indicates demand may now drive price changes, not shrinking supply.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures stands at a remarkable $78.36 billion, about 30 times the volume observed just days before the 2020 halving. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital suggests any dip in Bitcoin’s price before the halving could present the last bargain-buying opportunity of the pre-halving period, pointing to a resilient and optimistic market stance.
At the demand shift’s core stands MicroStrategy, holding a remarkable 214,246 BTC. This bold accumulation signals strong institutional confidence in Bitcoin, highlighting a shift towards demand-driven market dynamics ahead of the halving.
While the Bitcoin halving has historically been a significant catalyst for price rallies, the upcoming 2024 event may not have the same impact. The key driver for Bitcoin’s price action after the halving appears to be the surging demand from large investors, particularly whales and permanent holders, rather than the reduced supply. This shift in market dynamics could lead to a price trajectory different from previous halving cycles.
