Key Takeaways:
- PlanB predicts Bitcoin price will hit $135,000 by December with his S2F model.
- S2F model price prediction was accurate in Aug, Sep, Oct. However, it failed in Nov and Dec.
- Plan B concedes that his prediction requires a miracle to be accurate in December.
NIGERIA (CoinChapter.com) — As the year is set to end in two weeks, the $135,000 Bitcoin price prediction by the end of December by the pseudonymous analyst PlanB is becoming out of the question. The failed prediction has spurred another debate on the validity of PlanB’s well-known Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model among analysts.
Alex Krüger, an economist who analyses crypto and global markets, called the S2F model a “meme” while referring to PlanB as a “charlatan.”
“PlanB is a charlatan, and his S2f model is a meme. Many in crypto have been glorifying this charlatan because S2f makes people feel good and drives heavy engagement,” he tweeted.
When PlanB’s S2F model began to fail
PlanB’s S2F model began to fail in November after the analyst used the model to predict that the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin in November would be to end the month at around $98,000. The November prediction explains why the analyst posited that the number one cryptocurrency would end the year with a price well over $100,000.
After PlanB dropped his November prediction early in the month, investors had high hopes owing to the accuracy of the S2F prediction in August, September, and October. With the November miss, however, the model’s predictive power now seems to be facing its first major test.
After the November miss, the analyst failed to reverse his December prediction stating that the S2F model itself remains unaffected and “on track towards USD 100k.”
PlanB explained the November miss as “an outlier” and “a black swan that has not occurred in the data last 10 years.”
Explaining S2F model
PlanB, a pseudonymous Dutch analyst price prediction model (S2F) divides Bitcoin’s supply (stock) with its production (flow) to estimate its market movements over the long term. Bitcoin with a fixed 21 million supply combined with its diminishing supply will theoretically see its value increase over time.
In June, he made his first public S2F forecast when Bitcoin traded around $34,000. PlanB predicted the number one cryptocurrency would hit $45,000-$47000 by August-September, which proved accurate. By the end of August, Bitcoin hit $47,000 before dipping to $43,000 at the end of September.
For October, PlanB forecasted Bitcoin closing at $63,000, however, the number one cryptocurrency closed in October at $61,318, a slight discrepancy in his prediction. S2F went overboard, predicting a November end price of $98,000 when Bitcoin plunged and ended the month below $60,000.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $49,214, which certainly requires a miracle to spike to above $100,000 in fulfillment of PlanB’s initial forecast. He, however, said he won’t ditch the S2F model if it fails him.
